A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Each writes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has has something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
